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> What was very real in Silicon Valley, however, was
> the sometimes
> white-hot job market. There were points where if you
> could fog a mirror,
> you could get a job in Silicon Valley. There was
> real growth in
> salaries and contractor rates for engineers,
> programmers, tech writers,
> and support personnel, sometimes stunning growth.
> There was real money
> being invested in startups, and that real money
> largely went for
> salaries. That phenomenon has now largely dried up.
>
> I'm really puzzled by what this might mean. I can't
> conceive of an
> economy that no longer needs high tech. I can't
> imagine that business
> and consumers have bought almost all of the
> computers and devices using
> new technology that they're going to need for the
> next five years.
It's not that the economy doesn't need hi-tech... The
economy was overflowing with hi-tech for the last 10
years. We're now seeing the settling that technology
forecasters have been predicting for years. Computers
are now insanely powerful... it'd take a huge work of
code bloat genius to require a computer more powerful
than your standard home PC now sold at the local
office supply store (1.2GB P4 with 156MB RAM and a
60GB HD).
The market is also saturated with so much redundancy
that now we have to let time take over to let the
cream float to the top. You've got tons of equal
competition across the board, and within those
competitive arenas you also have companies struggling
to join in but don't really belong there.
Time and natural selection are taking over. Everyone
is going to feel the effects until the hi-tech flood
waters return to their normal ebb and wane.
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