Re: The software factory (was "Don't believe the hype?") (long)

[Steven Jong <SteveFJong -at- comcast -dot- net>]

Mike O. deconstructed my post and poked at some of my underlying 
points. I respond thusly:

>> Both [the hand-tooled sports car and the ubiquitous Toyota] are 
still made -  they each have their own markets.

True. I was thinking of the Porsche, which really *was* hand-made--no 
two Porsches are alike. You can buy Porsches; you can still buy 
hand-thrown pots, too. How much does the hand-made product cost? What's 
the market share? Perhaps handmade products are almost entirely 
supplanted in the market, not entirely replaced. This does not change 
my point.

>> [Microsoft is] [desperately] resisting commoditization.

Perhaps you have a different definition of the word "commodity" in 
mind. My point is that Microsoft has sold millions of identical units, 
which they do not customize or tune by hand. They have made software a 
commodity.

>> [Microsoft does not really have a chance to survive] on the current 
business model, and they know it. They will
>> survive only by virtue of their cash on hand, and changing their 
business model.

I doubt that the software we buy ten years from now will be built 
individually by hand, don't you?

>> Trends are just that - trends. Ten years ago the 'trend' was toward 
CASE
>> tools which would automatically generate code and put programmers 
out of work.

Yes, trends are trends. Don't confuse "trends" with "fads." There's 
been a strong trend away from typewriters and towards computer-based 
desktop publishing, too. Fad, or trend?

>> Repeating successful IT projects is like weather forecasting. If you 
have
>> enough data points, and enough processing power, you can predict 
every gust
>> of wind for the next year. But nobody puts that amount of effort into
>> planning and predicting IT projects; therefore tech managers are 
often
>> surprised when it rains.

I don't understand you here. I wasn't talking about IT projects, but 
documentation projects. Are you always surprised when a documentation 
project succeeds?


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