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"Andrew Plato" <gilliankitty -at- yahoo -dot- com> wrote in message news:231663 -at- techwr-l -dot- -dot- -dot-
> "Mike O." <obie1121 -at- yahoo -dot- com> wrote in message news:231599 -at- techwr-l -dot- -dot- -dot-
>
> > Repeating successful IT projects is like weather forecasting. If you
have
> > enough data points, and enough processing power, you can predict every
gust
> > of wind for the next year. But nobody puts that amount of effort into
> > planning and predicting IT projects; therefore tech managers are often
> > surprised when it rains.
>
> This is one of the more enlightening comments I've heard on TECHWR-L in a
> while.
>
> Complex systems (like designing software and writing docs) can be highly
> structured. But there are many variables. And few companies have the
resources
> or might to gather all the necessary data and analyze it effectively.
(Which is
> basically a repeat of what Mike said.)
>
<snip>
That's all well and good--if the initial premise were accurate. But it is
not.
The fact is, you could have data points covering the earth's surface and you
still could not accurately predict the winds next week, never mind next
year, no matter how many years of records you'd accumulated and no matter
how much processing power you can muster. Chaos theory proves it, although I
know it only at a high enough level to be able to make that claim, not to be
able to detail its accuracy.
Entropy assures that no system, no matter how well designed and build, will
ever be able to provide prefectly repeatable results. Inject the variables
of humanity of the system and it degrades even quicker.
People who deal best with such systems understand that they are probablistic
(sp?), not absolute. As such, tech managers who can read a barometer and see
that the pressure is falling will pick up their umbrella on their way out
the door.
--
--
Chuck Martin
User Assistance & Experience Engineer
twriter "at" sonic "dot" net www.writeforyou.com
"I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. The day
may come when the courage of Men fail, when we forsake our friends and
break all bonds of fellowship. But it is not this day! This day, we fight!"
- Aragorn
"All you have to decide is what to do with the time that is given you."
- Gandalf
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