Re: The software factory (was "Don't believe the hype?") (long)

["Mike O." <obie1121 -at- yahoo -dot- com>]

Steven Jong wrote:
> The hand-tuned sports car
> became the ubiquitous Toyota.

Both are still made -  they each have their own markets.

> there's a company in Redmond, Washington
> making a brave effort to commoditize software

No, they are desparately resisting commoditization.

> I think they have a
> chance to survive, don't you?

Not really; not on the current business model, and they know it. They will
survive only by virtue of their cash on hand, and changing their business
model.

> I think the trend is precisely toward the factory-worker model.

Trends are just that - trends. Ten years ago the 'trend' was toward CASE
tools which would automatically generate code and put programmers out of
work.

> I prefer to be among those who figure
> out how to produce effective information products consistently,
> efficiently, and repeatably.

Repeating successful IT projects is like weather forecasting. If you have
enough data points, and enough processing power, you can predict every gust
of wind for the next year. But nobody puts that amount of effort into
planning and predicting IT projects; therefore tech managers are often
surprised when it rains.

Mike O.



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