Re: Estimating a Project

["Steve Schwarzman" <steve_schwarzman -at- hotmail -dot- com>]

I've written before about the _process_ of estimating (you can check the 
archives). Here are the actual variables I consider in my Excel formula for 
user guides. All criteria are on a scale of 1-10. Different criteria have 
different weights.

* Writer - how strong I think the writer(s) on this project will be. This 
reflects both the writer's usual abilities and any current considerations or 
distractions.

* System size - how big, and how complex, is the system?

* Product availability and quality - we typically document our customized 
software when it is still in testing, so we can deliver to our customers 
even before the release. So how well the system works when we have it is a 
major factor.

* Specs and other tech docs - how available they are and how helpful they 
are.

* SMEs - availability and quality.

* Rush factor - rush work is more complex, and though it may sound 
paradoxical, takes more time. That is, it takes more effort, and so needs to 
be accounted for in my estimate.

I take these criteria, and with the weightings I've given them in my 
formula, come up with a raw score for the project. Then I multiply this raw 
score by our estimated page count (see my previous posts on breaking down 
the work into user tasks to do this) and by a running average of hours/page 
from all previous projects, and arrive at an estimate of the actual time for 
the project. Add a fudge factor of your choice, and you've got an estimate 
for the customer.

If you keep careful track of the actual hours spent on each project (so you 
can continually refine your hours/page and, if need be, tweak the formula 
based on your experience), you can use this formula to arrive at very 
accurate estimates for new projects. With an accurate estimate (defined by 
Hackos as +/- 15%), and a fudge factor of 20% to cover what even the formula 
can't predict, you'll consistently come in under budget and make your 
customer happy.

Steve Schwarzman

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